NBL · Pettigrew Green Arena

Wellington Saints 13-5

Final

107 : 82

Bay Hawks 3-16

Scoreboard

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
Saints	42	16	25	24	107
Bay Hawks	20	23	12	27	82

AI PREDICTIONNeural Network Forecast

This forecast was generated before tip-off — compare it with the final score above.

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
Saints	26	27	26	26	105
Bay Hawks	19	20	21	22	82

Confidence: 88% Saints favored

This matchup pits the NBL's worst team (Bay Hawks, 3-16, 86.4 ppg) against one of its best (Wellington Saints, 13-5, 99.0 ppg). Bay Hawks are in free fall, losing five consecutive games with defensive collapses—most recently a 62-103 hammering at Southland. Their -10.9 point differential reflects systemic issues on both ends. Wellington, meanwhile, is a top-4 team driven by elite scoring: E. Pepper averages 29.2 ppg, supported by Aliir's two-way presence and Carlin's playmaking. Although Wellington dropped to Canterbury last week, their 88-98 loss shows they can be vulnerable; however, that was away from home. The May 25 head-to-head (Wellington 107, Bay Hawks 79) illustrates the talent and defensive gulf. Bay Hawks have J. Ball (20.5 ppg in recent games) and Rasmussen's facilitation, but neither player is equipped to contain Pepper or keep pace with Wellington's balanced attack. Wellington's pace advantage and superior offensive efficiency should dominate a taxed Bay Hawks defense that yields 97.3 ppg. Home court offers minimal mitigation when one team is 3-16 and the other is 13-5 with clear talent separation.

Scoring Dynamics

First Half (Q1-Q2) 92P Saints establish early dominance; Hawks struggle to keep pace

Second Half (Q3-Q4) 95P Wellington maintains control; Bay Hawks chip away late

Total Points 187 Range 180-195

Matchup Analysis

Bay Hawks

J. Ball scoring punch

Rasmussen playmaking and balance

Grida Daniel rebounding edge

Worst record in league

Severe defensive vulnerability

Saints

E. Pepper elite scoring (29 ppg)

Strong defensive rating (90.3 opp ppg)

Balanced offensive attack

Recent loss to Canterbury Rams

Inconsistent form last five games

Risk Factors

Bay Hawks home court momentum shift

Wellington's recent inconsistency (1 loss in last 5)

Head-to-head blowout precedent (107-79)

Players to Watch

E. Pepper Saints Elite scorer at 29.2 ppg; will dominate Hawks' weak perimeter defense

J. Ball Bay Hawks Bay Hawks' only consistent offensive threat; needs 20+ to keep competitive

A. Aliir Saints Defensive anchor; critical to slowing Ball and protecting the paint

K. Rasmussen Bay Hawks Ball distributor; must generate efficient offense in limited minutes

Statistical Edges

First to Score Saints 72%

Hottest Quarter Q2

Game Preview

Wellington establishes control early, with E. Pepper immediately asserting dominance against the Bay Hawks' porous perimeter defense. By the end of Q1, Pepper and the Saints' balanced offensive movement force a 26-19 lead. In Q2, J. Ball keeps Bay Hawks scrappy with mid-range success, but Wellington's paint presence and Aliir's rim protection prove too much; the Saints extend to a 53-39 halftime advantage. The second half sees Bay Hawks mount modest resistance as K. Rasmussen and Grida Daniel generate some interior activity, closing the gap briefly in Q3 to within 13 points. However, Wellington's depth—including bench contributions from Ingram and Hunt Jordan—ensures no genuine run gains traction. Pepper finishes with a dominant 32-point night, and Wellington cruises to a comfortable 105-82 victory, reinforcing their top-four standing while Bay Hawks sink further toward the basement.

Wellington's 13-5 record, elite offense, and dominant head-to-head precedent (28-point win) far outweigh Bay Hawks' home court. Bay Hawks' 3-16 record and worst defensive rating in league ensure a blowout. Only injury to Pepper would shift confidence below 85%.

Wellington Saints vs Bay Hawks — Game Recap

Wellington Saints beat Bay Hawks 107-82 in NBL play on July 23, 2026 at Pettigrew Green Arena.

Wellington Saints led 58-43 at halftime, and they finished the job with a 25-point margin.

Before tip-off, our AI model predicted Wellington Saints to win 105-82 — the pick was correct. The forecast projected 187 total points against 189 actually scored; the full quarter-by-quarter prediction for this game is free to view on this page.

Follow Wellington Saints vs Bay Hawks in the NBL with live scores, a quarter-by-quarter scoreboard, full box score, and team statistics. Basketball Predicts combines real-time data with AI-powered analytics — team form, head-to-head history, and scoring trends — to give you the complete picture of every matchup.

Season Comparison

Saints

STAT

Bay Hawks

13-5 Record 3-16

.722 PCT .158

4 Position 11

1782 Points For 1641

1626 Points Against 1848

18 Games Played 19

- Streak -

99.0 Points Per Game 86.4

90.3 Opp. Points Per Game 97.3

Head to Head

Last 1 meetings

May 25, 2026

Bay Hawks 79 - 107 Saints

Saints Recent

Jul 18 vs Tauranga Whai 95-107 W

Jul 12 vs Rams 98-88 L

Jul 10 @ Tauranga Whai 109-95 W

Jul 4 @ Otago Nuggets 91-90 W

Jun 27 vs Nelson Giants 109-111 W

Bay Hawks Recent

Jul 18 @ Sharks 62-103 L

Jul 16 @ Otago Nuggets 79-92 L

Jul 11 @ Manawatu Jets 88-97 L

Jul 2 vs Taranaki Airs 96-74 L

Jun 28 @ Rams 77-93 L

Scoreboard